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LSI Industries Inc. (LYTS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.18 - $86.24$38.88
Multi-Stage$14.67 - $16.04$15.34
Blended Fair Value$27.11
Current Price$23.61
Upside14.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.50%7.49%0.190.180.180.170.170.170.170.170.160.14
YoY Growth--4.06%5.50%2.18%0.64%0.23%1.77%0.58%2.10%19.79%45.31%
Dividend Yield--0.81%1.14%1.10%2.23%2.20%2.52%3.20%3.68%2.46%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.993.121.87
Cash Retained (M)18.9518.9518.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.99-3.12-1.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.9615.8317.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.0531.0531.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Fair Value$23.18$38.88$86.24
Upside / Downside-1.81%64.68%265.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.9726.5828.3130.1532.1034.1835.21
Payout Ratio24.09%37.27%50.45%63.64%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.019.9114.2819.1824.6630.7732.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Year 1 PV (M)9.059.149.23
Year 2 PV (M)11.9212.1512.38
Year 3 PV (M)14.6315.0515.48
Year 4 PV (M)17.1917.8518.53
Year 5 PV (M)19.5920.5421.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)383.12401.62420.84
Equity Value (M)455.51476.36497.98
Shares Outstanding (M)31.0531.0531.05
Fair Value$14.67$15.34$16.04
Upside / Downside-37.86%-35.02%-32.07%

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