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Definitive Analysis

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Lowland Investment Company plc (LWI.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.35 - $1.99$1.66
Multi-Stage$2.12 - $2.32$2.22
Blended Fair Value$1.94
Current Price$1.29
Upside50.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.16%6.14%0.060.060.060.060.060.060.050.050.040.04
YoY Growth--4.88%0.50%1.33%-0.19%4.35%12.75%8.51%9.42%10.65%10.08%
Dividend Yield--5.08%5.44%5.82%4.57%6.62%4.53%3.38%3.16%3.23%3.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.315.823.49
Cash Retained (M)16.4616.4616.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.31-5.82-3.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.1510.6412.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.11268.11268.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate-0.85%0.15%1.15%
Fair Value$1.35$1.66$1.99
Upside / Downside4.97%28.62%54.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.5646.6346.7046.7746.8446.9148.32
Payout Ratio64.65%69.72%74.79%79.86%84.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.1032.5134.9237.3539.7842.2244.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate-0.85%0.15%1.15%
Year 1 PV (M)29.4429.7330.03
Year 2 PV (M)28.6429.2229.81
Year 3 PV (M)27.7428.5829.45
Year 4 PV (M)26.7527.8528.98
Year 5 PV (M)25.7127.0428.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)430.42452.56475.61
Equity Value (M)568.70594.99622.29
Shares Outstanding (M)268.11268.11268.11
Fair Value$2.12$2.22$2.32
Upside / Downside64.43%72.03%79.92%

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