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Definitive Analysis

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Ludan Engineering Co. Ltd (LUDN.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.23 - $39.64$29.56
Multi-Stage$34.79 - $38.14$36.43
Blended Fair Value$33.00
Current Price$14.16
Upside133.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS86.35%0.00%3.101.030.500.500.130.140.030.000.090.08
YoY Growth--201.24%105.83%0.00%285.93%-6.10%347.89%0.00%-100.00%6.63%0.00%
Dividend Yield--15.29%5.73%3.69%2.95%1.40%3.57%0.48%0.00%0.98%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.742.341.40
Cash Retained (M)6.606.606.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.74-2.34-1.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.864.265.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.5311.5311.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.370.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.370.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.421.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$22.23$29.56$39.64
Upside / Downside56.97%108.75%179.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.7019.0919.4819.8820.2920.7121.33
Payout Ratio64.73%69.78%74.84%79.89%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.1113.3214.5815.8917.2418.6419.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)12.3312.4512.57
Year 2 PV (M)12.4912.7412.99
Year 3 PV (M)12.6012.9813.36
Year 4 PV (M)12.6613.1713.69
Year 5 PV (M)12.6713.3113.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)338.18355.24372.99
Equity Value (M)400.93419.89439.59
Shares Outstanding (M)11.5311.5311.53
Fair Value$34.79$36.43$38.14
Upside / Downside145.67%157.29%169.36%

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