Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.86 - $7.37$6.04
Multi-Stage$10.21 - $11.22$10.70
Blended Fair Value$8.37
Current Price$22.92
Upside-63.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.270.010.081.000.030.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3,287.83%-89.76%-92.26%2,792.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.07%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.8817.4310.46
Cash Retained (M)61.5261.5261.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.88-17.43-10.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.6344.0951.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.52250.52250.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.86$6.04$7.37
Upside / Downside-78.81%-73.65%-67.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.42138.03136.65135.28133.93132.59136.57
Payout Ratio55.88%62.70%69.53%76.35%83.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.9086.5495.01103.29111.40119.33126.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)80.0880.9081.71
Year 2 PV (M)81.3483.0184.69
Year 3 PV (M)81.8284.3586.94
Year 4 PV (M)81.6585.0488.53
Year 5 PV (M)80.9485.1589.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,151.292,263.322,379.96
Equity Value (M)2,557.132,681.762,811.37
Shares Outstanding (M)250.52250.52250.52
Fair Value$10.21$10.70$11.22
Upside / Downside-55.47%-53.30%-51.04%

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