Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Loomis AB (publ) (LOOMIS.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,713.81 - $5,206.59$4,879.34
Multi-Stage$714.40 - $781.24$747.21
Blended Fair Value$2,813.28
Current Price$401.60
Upside600.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.25%8.88%12.8412.459.166.586.0410.949.888.797.696.58
YoY Growth--3.17%35.83%39.25%8.94%-44.80%10.78%12.46%14.23%16.85%19.95%
Dividend Yield--3.16%4.12%2.58%2.55%2.27%5.42%3.07%2.92%2.71%2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,794.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)959.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)835.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)358.80224.25134.55
Cash Retained (M)835.00835.00835.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-358.80-224.25-134.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)476.20610.75700.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.5368.5368.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.958.9110.22
LTM Dividend per Share13.9913.9913.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.958.9110.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.9422.9124.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,713.81$4,879.34$5,206.59
Upside / Downside326.74%1,114.98%1,196.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,794.001,910.612,034.802,167.062,307.922,457.942,531.67
Payout Ratio53.46%60.76%68.07%75.38%82.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)959.001,160.981,385.161,633.581,908.452,212.142,341.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,076.961,087.171,097.37
Year 2 PV (M)1,191.931,214.631,237.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,303.971,341.401,379.54
Year 4 PV (M)1,413.121,467.471,523.37
Year 5 PV (M)1,519.461,592.851,669.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,448.8644,499.1646,627.92
Equity Value (M)48,954.3051,202.6753,534.80
Shares Outstanding (M)68.5368.5368.53
Fair Value$714.40$747.21$781.24
Upside / Downside77.89%86.06%94.53%

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