Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.99 - $11.93$9.86
Multi-Stage$19.13 - $21.09$20.09
Blended Fair Value$14.98
Current Price$6.26
Upside139.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-33.39%-11.83%0.300.302.312.312.312.312.312.011.751.55
YoY Growth--0.00%-86.90%0.11%0.06%0.00%0.00%15.03%14.64%12.72%45.67%
Dividend Yield--4.33%5.93%43.11%13.65%12.95%22.61%12.01%10.13%7.51%9.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.774.232.54
Cash Retained (M)23.3123.3123.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.77-4.23-2.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.5319.0720.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.3934.3934.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.05%-2.05%-1.05%
Fair Value$7.99$9.86$11.93
Upside / Downside27.68%57.59%90.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.8733.1832.5031.8331.1830.5431.46
Payout Ratio31.19%42.95%54.71%66.48%78.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.5614.2517.7821.1624.3927.4929.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.05%-2.05%-1.05%
Year 1 PV (M)13.2413.3813.52
Year 2 PV (M)15.3615.6716.00
Year 3 PV (M)16.9817.5118.06
Year 4 PV (M)18.1918.9619.74
Year 5 PV (M)19.0520.0521.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)575.01605.28636.81
Equity Value (M)657.83690.85725.22
Shares Outstanding (M)34.3934.3934.39
Fair Value$19.13$20.09$21.09
Upside / Downside205.53%220.87%236.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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