Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kingspan Group plc (KGP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$184.65 - $731.95$314.32
Multi-Stage$113.90 - $124.60$119.15
Blended Fair Value$216.74
Current Price$72.20
Upside200.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.48%14.34%0.530.500.510.400.000.420.370.340.260.17
YoY Growth--5.92%-2.67%27.48%0.00%-100.00%13.62%10.70%28.54%50.94%25.69%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.63%1.01%0.38%0.00%0.78%0.99%0.91%1.01%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,143.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)997.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)228.79142.9985.80
Cash Retained (M)997.45997.45997.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-228.79-142.99-85.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)768.66854.46911.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)183.74183.74183.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.184.654.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.184.654.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.985.455.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$184.65$314.32$731.95
Upside / Downside155.74%335.35%913.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,143.951,218.311,297.501,381.831,471.651,567.311,614.33
Payout Ratio12.81%28.25%43.68%59.12%74.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.50344.11566.80816.981,097.281,410.581,493.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)314.62317.61320.59
Year 2 PV (M)473.82482.84491.95
Year 3 PV (M)624.43642.35660.62
Year 4 PV (M)766.80796.29826.62
Year 5 PV (M)901.26944.79989.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,847.3518,709.3819,604.41
Equity Value (M)20,928.2821,893.2622,894.18
Shares Outstanding (M)183.74183.74183.74
Fair Value$113.90$119.15$124.60
Upside / Downside57.76%65.03%72.58%

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