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The Keg Royalties Income Fund (KEG-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.71 - $31.00$22.57
Multi-Stage$26.39 - $28.91$27.63
Blended Fair Value$25.10
Current Price$13.89
Upside80.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.03%3.33%1.610.770.770.490.430.771.421.351.351.23
YoY Growth--110.35%0.00%57.92%11.66%-43.30%-45.94%4.83%0.50%9.49%5.75%
Dividend Yield--11.62%5.12%4.89%2.92%3.25%9.01%8.11%7.40%6.70%6.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.802.381.43
Cash Retained (M)2.922.922.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.80-2.38-1.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.880.551.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.8016.8016.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.030.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.030.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.25%2.25%3.25%
Fair Value$16.71$22.57$31.00
Upside / Downside20.28%62.46%123.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.0219.4519.8820.3320.7921.2621.90
Payout Ratio84.63%85.70%86.78%87.85%88.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.1016.6717.2617.8618.4919.1320.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.25%2.25%3.25%
Year 1 PV (M)15.4615.6115.77
Year 2 PV (M)14.8515.1515.44
Year 3 PV (M)14.2614.6915.12
Year 4 PV (M)13.6914.2414.81
Year 5 PV (M)13.1513.8114.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)372.00390.73410.22
Equity Value (M)443.41464.23485.85
Shares Outstanding (M)16.8016.8016.80
Fair Value$26.39$27.63$28.91
Upside / Downside89.97%98.89%108.16%

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