Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kadant Inc. (KAI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$179.96 - $418.09$263.68
Multi-Stage$126.90 - $138.67$132.68
Blended Fair Value$198.18
Current Price$302.68
Upside-34.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.55%8.75%1.241.121.020.970.930.870.820.760.680.61
YoY Growth--10.96%10.18%4.72%5.11%6.93%5.72%7.02%12.11%11.97%13.25%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.34%0.49%0.49%0.49%1.22%0.93%0.81%1.15%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.4012.757.65
Cash Retained (M)86.4586.4586.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.40-12.75-7.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.0573.7078.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7911.7911.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.606.256.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.606.256.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.927.578.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$179.96$263.68$418.09
Upside / Downside-40.54%-12.89%38.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.98108.60115.66123.18131.19139.72143.91
Payout Ratio15.23%30.18%45.14%60.09%75.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.5332.7852.2174.0298.45125.74133.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6429.9230.20
Year 2 PV (M)42.6843.4944.32
Year 3 PV (M)54.7256.2957.89
Year 4 PV (M)65.8068.3470.94
Year 5 PV (M)76.0079.6783.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,226.761,286.011,347.53
Equity Value (M)1,495.601,563.721,634.35
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7911.7911.79
Fair Value$126.90$132.68$138.67
Upside / Downside-58.08%-56.17%-54.19%

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