Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Janus Henderson Group plc (JHG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.49 - $69.80$53.88
Multi-Stage$67.97 - $74.60$71.22
Blended Fair Value$62.55
Current Price$44.51
Upside40.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.69%5.63%1.621.671.681.651.701.761.781.651.021.04
YoY Growth---3.32%-0.27%1.33%-2.62%-3.49%-0.98%7.46%62.54%-2.17%11.34%
Dividend Yield--4.47%5.16%6.29%4.72%5.45%11.49%7.00%5.00%4.95%4.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)534.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)249.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)284.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.9066.8140.09
Cash Retained (M)284.80284.80284.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.90-66.81-40.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.90217.99244.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)154.80154.80154.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.411.58
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.411.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.763.023.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Fair Value$41.49$53.88$69.80
Upside / Downside-6.80%21.06%56.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)534.50542.19550.00557.92565.95574.10591.32
Payout Ratio46.72%55.37%64.03%72.69%81.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)249.70300.23352.16405.53460.36516.69546.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Year 1 PV (M)277.49280.26283.02
Year 2 PV (M)300.84306.86312.94
Year 3 PV (M)320.20329.86339.71
Year 4 PV (M)335.96349.54363.53
Year 5 PV (M)348.51366.21384.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,938.889,392.829,865.01
Equity Value (M)10,521.8811,025.5411,548.83
Shares Outstanding (M)154.80154.80154.80
Fair Value$67.97$71.22$74.60
Upside / Downside52.71%60.02%67.61%

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