Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jersey Electricity plc (JEL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.75 - $14.43$11.27
Multi-Stage$10.50 - $11.47$10.97
Blended Fair Value$11.12
Current Price$4.35
Upside155.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.37%5.06%0.200.190.180.170.160.150.150.140.130.13
YoY Growth--5.33%5.63%5.31%5.31%5.27%5.11%5.08%3.98%5.39%4.21%
Dividend Yield--4.60%4.18%3.42%2.85%3.33%3.43%3.07%3.05%3.12%2.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.602.881.73
Cash Retained (M)10.8210.8210.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.60-2.88-1.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.217.949.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.6430.6430.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$8.75$11.27$14.43
Upside / Downside101.17%159.09%231.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.0123.7624.5325.3226.1426.9927.80
Payout Ratio52.99%60.39%67.80%75.20%82.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.1914.3516.6319.0421.5924.2925.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)13.0013.1313.26
Year 2 PV (M)13.6613.9314.20
Year 3 PV (M)14.1814.6015.03
Year 4 PV (M)14.5715.1515.75
Year 5 PV (M)14.8615.6016.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)251.31263.85276.88
Equity Value (M)321.59336.26351.48
Shares Outstanding (M)30.6430.6430.64
Fair Value$10.50$10.97$11.47
Upside / Downside141.28%152.29%163.71%

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