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Definitive Analysis

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Instalco AB (publ) (INSTAL.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.83 - $207.79$194.73
Multi-Stage$31.95 - $34.94$33.41
Blended Fair Value$114.07
Current Price$25.50
Upside347.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.65%0.00%0.670.650.640.530.430.270.200.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.07%1.78%19.86%22.61%57.53%40.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.51%1.27%0.75%0.68%1.22%1.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)278.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)182.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.6034.7520.85
Cash Retained (M)96.0096.0096.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.60-34.75-20.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.4061.2575.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)266.08266.08266.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.230.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.230.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.910.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$95.83$194.73$207.79
Upside / Downside275.80%663.63%714.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)278.00296.07315.31335.81357.64380.88392.31
Payout Ratio65.47%70.37%75.28%80.19%85.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)182.00208.36237.37269.28304.33342.80362.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)193.95195.79197.63
Year 2 PV (M)205.68209.59213.55
Year 3 PV (M)217.19223.42229.77
Year 4 PV (M)228.48237.27246.31
Year 5 PV (M)239.57251.14263.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,415.077,773.228,145.07
Equity Value (M)8,499.938,890.439,295.48
Shares Outstanding (M)266.08266.08266.08
Fair Value$31.95$33.41$34.94
Upside / Downside25.28%31.03%37.00%

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