Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $26.37 - $38.26 | $32.14 |
| Multi-Stage | $38.03 - $41.78 | $39.87 |
| Blended Fair Value | $36.00 | |
| Current Price | $196.23 | |
| Upside | -81.65% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 13.42% | -4.00% | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 50.70% | 69.05% | 147.06% | 54.55% | -80.70% | -52.10% | -26.54% | -28.95% | 2.24% | 38.51% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.20% | 0.26% | 0.24% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.87% | 1.49% | 1.73% | 2.13% | 2.65% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,450.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 163.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,287.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 290.00 | 181.25 | 108.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,287.00 | 1,287.00 | 1,287.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -290.00 | -181.25 | -108.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 997.00 | 1,105.75 | 1,178.25 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 406.75 | 406.75 | 406.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.45 | 2.72 | 2.90 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.45 | 2.72 | 2.90 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.85 | 3.12 | 3.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.62% | 9.62% | 9.62% |
| Growth Rate | -1.08% | -0.08% | 0.92% |
| Fair Value | $26.37 | $32.14 | $38.26 |
| Upside / Downside | -86.56% | -83.62% | -80.50% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,450.00 | 1,448.82 | 1,447.64 | 1,446.46 | 1,445.28 | 1,444.10 | 1,487.42 |
| Payout Ratio | 11.24% | 26.99% | 42.74% | 58.50% | 74.25% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 163.00 | 391.08 | 618.79 | 846.13 | 1,073.09 | 1,299.69 | 1,375.86 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.62% | 9.62% | 9.62% |
| Growth Rate | -1.08% | -0.08% | 0.92% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 353.20 | 356.77 | 360.34 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 504.72 | 514.98 | 525.33 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 623.30 | 642.39 | 661.87 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 713.92 | 743.23 | 773.43 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 780.92 | 821.20 | 863.12 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 12,493.27 | 13,137.66 | 13,808.38 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,469.33 | 16,216.23 | 16,992.48 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 406.75 | 406.75 | 406.75 |
| Fair Value | $38.03 | $39.87 | $41.78 |
| Upside / Downside | -80.62% | -79.68% | -78.71% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |