Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.19 - $184.36$70.62
Multi-Stage$19.98 - $21.83$20.89
Blended Fair Value$45.75
Current Price$8.56
Upside434.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.42%10.95%0.210.210.210.240.000.130.120.120.120.11
YoY Growth--1.58%-0.78%-13.92%0.00%-100.00%3.37%-0.15%4.59%9.18%46.10%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.55%3.73%2.70%0.00%1.91%2.85%2.70%3.10%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)508.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)231.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)277.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.7863.6138.17
Cash Retained (M)277.20277.20277.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.78-63.61-38.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.42213.59239.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)548.95548.95548.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.19$70.62$184.36
Upside / Downside311.11%724.95%2,053.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)508.90541.98577.21614.73654.68697.24718.15
Payout Ratio45.53%54.42%63.32%72.21%81.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)231.70294.96365.47443.90530.99627.51664.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)271.25273.82276.39
Year 2 PV (M)309.06314.95320.89
Year 3 PV (M)345.20355.11365.20
Year 4 PV (M)379.71394.32409.34
Year 5 PV (M)412.66432.59453.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,248.569,695.2710,159.07
Equity Value (M)10,966.4311,466.0411,984.17
Shares Outstanding (M)548.95548.95548.95
Fair Value$19.98$20.89$21.83
Upside / Downside133.38%144.01%155.03%

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