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Definitive Analysis

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Hiscox Ltd (HSX.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.97 - $63.88$50.81
Multi-Stage$48.79 - $53.46$51.08
Blended Fair Value$50.95
Current Price$17.23
Upside195.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.62%1.33%0.360.350.340.110.000.320.300.280.400.29
YoY Growth--2.01%3.92%205.61%0.00%-100.00%5.58%7.92%-29.45%38.49%-9.89%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.64%2.59%0.96%0.00%1.68%1.46%1.41%3.15%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,316.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)268.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,048.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.24164.5398.72
Cash Retained (M)1,048.001,048.001,048.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.24-164.53-98.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)784.76883.48949.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)351.11351.11351.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.242.522.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.760.760.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.242.522.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate1.64%2.64%3.64%
Fair Value$39.97$50.81$63.88
Upside / Downside131.98%194.89%270.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,316.201,351.001,386.711,423.371,461.001,499.631,544.62
Payout Ratio20.38%34.30%48.23%62.15%76.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)268.20463.41668.76884.641,111.461,349.671,428.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate1.64%2.64%3.64%
Year 1 PV (M)419.97424.10428.23
Year 2 PV (M)549.24560.10571.07
Year 3 PV (M)658.43678.05698.06
Year 4 PV (M)749.69779.63810.46
Year 5 PV (M)825.02866.41909.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,929.2914,628.1115,354.70
Equity Value (M)17,131.6317,936.4018,771.96
Shares Outstanding (M)351.11351.11351.11
Fair Value$48.79$51.08$53.46
Upside / Downside183.18%196.49%210.30%

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