Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust plc (HSL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.60 - $6.59$5.57
Multi-Stage$7.79 - $8.52$8.15
Blended Fair Value$6.86
Current Price$8.41
Upside-18.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.65%8.82%0.270.270.250.240.240.240.220.190.160.14
YoY Growth--1.06%10.41%1.09%1.05%-0.01%9.27%13.16%18.75%14.29%21.73%
Dividend Yield--3.26%3.05%3.13%2.65%1.85%3.09%2.56%2.01%2.05%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.676.043.63
Cash Retained (M)14.0514.0514.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.67-6.04-3.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.388.0110.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.0773.0773.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.60$5.57$6.59
Upside / Downside-45.34%-33.73%-21.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.3547.8747.3946.9146.4545.9847.36
Payout Ratio70.94%74.75%78.56%82.38%86.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.3035.7837.2338.6540.0341.3843.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)32.4132.7433.07
Year 2 PV (M)30.5531.1731.80
Year 3 PV (M)28.7229.6130.51
Year 4 PV (M)26.9528.0629.21
Year 5 PV (M)25.2326.5527.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)424.97447.10470.14
Equity Value (M)568.82595.23622.66
Shares Outstanding (M)73.0773.0773.07
Fair Value$7.79$8.15$8.52
Upside / Downside-7.43%-3.13%1.33%

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