Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$486.25 - $1,129.96$1,058.93
Multi-Stage$171.31 - $187.27$179.14
Blended Fair Value$619.04
Current Price$84.40
Upside633.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.74%20.91%6.013.616.002.302.302.251.954.751.701.20
YoY Growth--66.40%-39.82%160.98%0.00%2.33%15.35%-58.96%179.49%41.65%33.23%
Dividend Yield--6.87%2.73%4.67%2.49%2.33%3.77%2.39%6.14%1.85%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,957.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)508.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)391.40244.63146.78
Cash Retained (M)508.00508.00508.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-391.40-244.63-146.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)116.60263.38361.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)344.44344.44344.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.761.05
LTM Dividend per Share4.214.214.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.761.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.975.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$486.25$1,058.93$1,129.96
Upside / Downside476.13%1,154.66%1,238.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,957.002,084.212,219.682,363.962,517.612,681.262,761.70
Payout Ratio74.04%77.23%80.43%83.62%86.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,449.001,609.701,785.181,976.662,185.502,413.132,554.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,497.461,511.661,525.85
Year 2 PV (M)1,544.901,574.331,604.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,591.331,637.021,683.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,636.781,699.721,764.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,681.241,762.441,846.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,052.0853,517.9156,078.12
Equity Value (M)59,003.7961,703.0764,502.78
Shares Outstanding (M)344.44344.44344.44
Fair Value$171.31$179.14$187.27
Upside / Downside102.97%112.25%121.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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