Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Holcim Ltd (HOLN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$447.48 - $875.96$616.93
Multi-Stage$694.73 - $763.86$728.63
Blended Fair Value$672.78
Current Price$58.90
Upside1,042.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.28%13.99%2.832.552.402.202.200.582.152.181.640.76
YoY Growth--11.03%6.32%8.84%-0.16%280.12%-72.99%-1.65%33.33%114.39%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%3.17%4.07%4.86%3.97%1.64%4.27%4.17%2.77%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,419.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,714.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,705.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,083.801,927.381,156.43
Cash Retained (M)13,705.0013,705.0013,705.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,083.80-1,927.38-1,156.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,621.2011,777.6312,548.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)555.17555.17555.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share19.1321.2122.60
LTM Dividend per Share3.093.093.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share19.1321.2122.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.2224.3025.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Fair Value$447.48$616.93$875.96
Upside / Downside659.72%947.41%1,387.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,419.0015,771.6416,132.3416,501.3016,878.6917,264.7117,782.65
Payout Ratio11.12%26.89%42.67%58.45%74.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,714.004,241.456,883.629,644.4212,527.9115,538.2416,448.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)3,950.473,989.474,028.47
Year 2 PV (M)5,971.516,090.006,209.66
Year 3 PV (M)7,792.508,025.598,263.29
Year 4 PV (M)9,427.859,805.7210,194.84
Year 5 PV (M)10,891.0411,439.4012,009.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)347,660.99365,165.40383,367.88
Equity Value (M)385,694.36404,515.58424,073.76
Shares Outstanding (M)555.17555.17555.17
Fair Value$694.73$728.63$763.86
Upside / Downside1,079.50%1,137.06%1,196.87%

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