Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Höegh LNG Holdings Ltd. (HLNG.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.97 - $101.28$94.92
Multi-Stage$24.49 - $26.84$25.65
Blended Fair Value$60.28
Current Price$2.21
Upside2,627.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.020.060.060.320.250.230.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.00%0.30%-80.02%25.61%7.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.58%6.23%1.53%5.94%2.47%2.19%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.227.644.58
Cash Retained (M)36.1136.1136.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.22-7.64-4.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.8928.4731.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate5.17%5.17%5.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$85.97$94.92$101.28
Upside / Downside3,789.91%4,194.92%4,482.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.1165.0969.3273.8278.6283.7386.24
Payout Ratio40.91%50.73%60.54%70.36%80.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.0033.0241.9751.9463.0475.3679.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.17%5.17%5.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.1031.3931.69
Year 2 PV (M)37.2337.9438.66
Year 3 PV (M)43.4044.6545.92
Year 4 PV (M)49.6251.5253.49
Year 5 PV (M)55.8658.5661.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,721.962,853.432,989.93
Equity Value (M)2,939.173,077.503,221.04
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$24.49$25.65$26.84
Upside / Downside1,008.28%1,060.44%1,114.57%

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