Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Helical plc (HLCL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.57 - $2.07$1.83
Multi-Stage$3.70 - $4.10$3.90
Blended Fair Value$2.86
Current Price$1.97
Upside45.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-19.91%-6.57%0.030.120.110.100.090.100.090.080.030.12
YoY Growth---72.09%4.20%10.01%19.51%-13.84%7.13%11.88%185.89%-75.30%81.73%
Dividend Yield--1.66%5.62%3.75%2.49%2.07%2.84%2.75%2.57%0.93%3.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.806.754.05
Cash Retained (M)35.5435.5435.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.80-6.75-4.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.7428.7931.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.88122.88122.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-11.56%-10.56%-9.56%
Fair Value$1.57$1.83$2.07
Upside / Downside-20.26%-7.11%4.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.9948.2943.1938.6334.5630.9131.84
Payout Ratio34.17%45.34%56.50%67.67%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4521.8924.4126.1427.2427.8229.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-11.56%-10.56%-9.56%
Year 1 PV (M)20.0020.2320.45
Year 2 PV (M)20.3720.8321.30
Year 3 PV (M)19.9320.6221.32
Year 4 PV (M)18.9819.8520.75
Year 5 PV (M)17.7018.7319.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)358.03378.73400.38
Equity Value (M)455.01478.99504.01
Shares Outstanding (M)122.88122.88122.88
Fair Value$3.70$3.90$4.10
Upside / Downside87.96%97.86%108.20%

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