Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.48 - $73.71$42.16
Multi-Stage$19.81 - $21.69$20.73
Blended Fair Value$31.45
Current Price$10.61
Upside196.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.97%4.22%0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth--22.22%11.19%-2.39%9.60%-3.67%-2.92%9.74%3.34%-1.03%-0.90%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.16%0.19%0.13%0.14%0.52%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)461.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)456.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.3357.7134.62
Cash Retained (M)456.05456.05456.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.33-57.71-34.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)363.72398.34421.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)395.61395.61395.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.011.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.011.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.54%8.54%8.54%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Fair Value$27.48$42.16$73.71
Upside / Downside158.97%297.35%594.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)461.66489.22518.43549.38582.17616.92635.43
Payout Ratio1.22%18.97%36.73%54.49%72.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.6192.82190.41299.33420.58555.23587.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.54%8.54%8.54%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Year 1 PV (M)84.7185.5286.32
Year 2 PV (M)158.60161.64164.71
Year 3 PV (M)227.55234.12240.81
Year 4 PV (M)291.79303.07314.68
Year 5 PV (M)351.57368.64386.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,722.597,048.967,387.90
Equity Value (M)7,836.828,201.958,580.77
Shares Outstanding (M)395.61395.61395.61
Fair Value$19.81$20.73$21.69
Upside / Downside86.71%95.41%104.43%

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