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Definitive Analysis

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H&T Group plc (HAT.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.47 - $84.39$42.68
Multi-Stage$17.46 - $19.07$18.25
Blended Fair Value$30.47
Current Price$3.55
Upside758.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.77%15.71%0.170.160.120.090.020.100.090.080.070.05
YoY Growth--6.33%40.53%27.75%300.20%-77.17%9.46%11.84%14.63%36.06%29.17%
Dividend Yield--4.92%3.81%2.44%3.10%0.89%2.97%3.46%2.44%2.77%2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.665.413.25
Cash Retained (M)28.5528.5528.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.66-5.41-3.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.8823.1325.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.5343.5343.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.530.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.530.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.47$42.68$84.39
Upside / Downside645.64%1,102.26%2,277.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.3146.1349.1252.3255.7259.3461.12
Payout Ratio34.09%45.27%56.45%67.64%78.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.7720.8827.7335.3943.9253.4156.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.0419.2219.40
Year 2 PV (M)23.0423.4823.93
Year 3 PV (M)26.8027.5728.36
Year 4 PV (M)30.3231.4932.69
Year 5 PV (M)33.6135.2436.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)627.32657.62689.08
Equity Value (M)760.14794.62830.37
Shares Outstanding (M)43.5343.5343.53
Fair Value$17.46$18.25$19.07
Upside / Downside391.87%414.18%437.31%

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