Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.30 - $11.28$9.15
Multi-Stage$16.77 - $18.44$17.59
Blended Fair Value$13.37
Current Price$97.40
Upside-86.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.400.280.230.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--43.75%23.08%85.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.64%0.68%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2011.386.83
Cash Retained (M)33.0033.0033.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.20-11.38-6.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8021.6326.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.47115.47115.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.30$9.15$11.28
Upside / Downside-92.50%-90.61%-88.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.0090.0989.1988.3087.4186.5489.14
Payout Ratio63.74%68.99%74.24%79.49%84.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.0062.1566.2270.1974.0877.8982.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)57.7958.3858.97
Year 2 PV (M)57.2558.4259.61
Year 3 PV (M)56.4258.1759.95
Year 4 PV (M)55.3757.6760.03
Year 5 PV (M)54.1356.9559.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,654.941,741.121,830.85
Equity Value (M)1,935.902,030.702,129.29
Shares Outstanding (M)115.47115.47115.47
Fair Value$16.77$17.59$18.44
Upside / Downside-82.79%-81.94%-81.07%

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