Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A. (GOB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$179.34 - $385.85$255.92
Multi-Stage$228.20 - $250.37$239.08
Blended Fair Value$247.50
Current Price$99.64
Upside148.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.86%4.31%2.082.011.661.390.001.421.411.381.351.38
YoY Growth--3.16%21.61%19.51%0.00%-100.00%1.27%2.02%1.91%-2.16%1.46%
Dividend Yield--2.42%3.04%3.63%2.24%0.00%3.90%4.82%3.02%3.05%3.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,877.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,593.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,284.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)975.50609.69365.81
Cash Retained (M)3,284.503,284.503,284.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-975.50-609.69-365.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,309.002,674.812,918.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)503.18503.18503.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.595.325.80
LTM Dividend per Share3.173.173.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.595.325.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.758.488.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Fair Value$179.34$255.92$385.85
Upside / Downside79.99%156.84%287.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,877.505,039.145,206.145,378.675,556.925,741.075,913.30
Payout Ratio32.66%44.13%55.60%67.06%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,593.002,223.682,894.413,607.154,363.965,166.975,469.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)2,063.142,083.302,103.47
Year 2 PV (M)2,491.572,540.512,589.93
Year 3 PV (M)2,880.942,966.243,053.21
Year 4 PV (M)3,233.763,362.053,494.12
Year 5 PV (M)3,552.373,729.403,913.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,602.98105,616.41110,827.76
Equity Value (M)114,824.77120,297.93125,981.91
Shares Outstanding (M)503.18503.18503.18
Fair Value$228.20$239.08$250.37
Upside / Downside129.02%139.94%151.28%

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