Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Goodman Group (GMG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.43 - $42.35$25.92
Multi-Stage$14.66 - $16.01$15.32
Blended Fair Value$20.62
Current Price$34.24
Upside-39.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.91%6.51%0.300.290.290.290.280.280.270.250.240.17
YoY Growth--0.74%0.94%0.88%1.05%0.93%3.33%8.25%5.92%39.81%8.38%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.84%1.45%1.61%1.35%1.90%1.79%2.62%3.03%2.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,567.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)852.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)715.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)313.50195.94117.56
Cash Retained (M)715.20715.20715.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-313.50-195.94-117.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)401.70519.26597.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.701,935.701,935.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Fair Value$17.43$25.92$42.35
Upside / Downside-49.09%-24.29%23.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,567.501,653.831,744.911,841.001,942.392,049.362,110.84
Payout Ratio54.37%61.50%68.62%75.75%82.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)852.301,017.081,197.421,394.551,609.751,844.421,952.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Year 1 PV (M)929.45938.34947.24
Year 2 PV (M)999.981,019.211,038.62
Year 3 PV (M)1,064.261,095.101,126.54
Year 4 PV (M)1,122.651,166.241,211.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,175.491,232.811,292.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,083.0724,208.7825,377.99
Equity Value (M)28,374.8929,660.4830,993.82
Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.701,935.701,935.70
Fair Value$14.66$15.32$16.01
Upside / Downside-57.19%-55.25%-53.24%

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