Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Gigante, S. A. B. de C. V. (GIGANTE.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.94 - $31.31$25.16
Multi-Stage$31.21 - $34.31$32.73
Blended Fair Value$28.94
Current Price$28.65
Upside1.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.140.010.010.000.080.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%1,635.45%-5.43%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.49%0.03%0.04%0.00%0.23%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,994.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,745.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)398.82249.26149.56
Cash Retained (M)1,745.531,745.531,745.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-398.82-249.26-149.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,346.711,496.271,595.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)994.23994.23994.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.351.501.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.351.501.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate-0.17%0.83%1.83%
Fair Value$19.94$25.16$31.31
Upside / Downside-30.41%-12.19%9.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,994.092,010.622,027.292,044.102,061.052,078.142,140.48
Payout Ratio12.46%27.97%43.48%58.99%74.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.56562.41881.441,205.731,535.341,870.331,979.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate-0.17%0.83%1.83%
Year 1 PV (M)516.24521.41526.58
Year 2 PV (M)742.66757.61772.72
Year 3 PV (M)932.49960.80989.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,089.931,134.261,179.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,218.741,281.011,345.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,529.7927,885.4429,295.95
Equity Value (M)31,029.8432,540.5334,110.65
Shares Outstanding (M)994.23994.23994.23
Fair Value$31.21$32.73$34.31
Upside / Downside8.94%14.24%19.75%

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