Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GCC, S.A.B. de C.V. (GCC.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.34 - $37.12$24.70
Multi-Stage$12.49 - $13.64$13.05
Blended Fair Value$18.88
Current Price$9.57
Upside97.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.81%13.47%0.090.080.060.070.020.040.040.030.030.03
YoY Growth--21.70%28.72%-21.97%249.91%-51.30%14.58%16.51%9.25%19.11%-2.18%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.63%0.74%1.04%0.31%1.48%0.68%0.62%0.67%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)299.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)269.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.9037.4422.46
Cash Retained (M)269.70269.70269.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.90-37.44-22.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)209.79232.26247.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)327.66327.66327.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.710.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.710.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.34$24.70$37.12
Upside / Downside81.20%158.07%287.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)299.51318.97339.71361.79385.30410.35422.66
Payout Ratio9.95%25.96%41.97%57.98%73.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.8182.81142.58209.77285.09369.31390.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.6175.3276.03
Year 2 PV (M)115.74117.95120.17
Year 3 PV (M)153.42157.82162.31
Year 4 PV (M)187.86195.08202.51
Year 5 PV (M)219.26229.85240.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,340.223,501.563,669.07
Equity Value (M)4,091.114,277.584,470.93
Shares Outstanding (M)327.66327.66327.66
Fair Value$12.49$13.05$13.64
Upside / Downside30.47%36.41%42.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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