Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC GAZ (GAZA.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$973.74 - $1,353.70$1,163.96
Multi-Stage$1,293.63 - $1,421.66$1,356.41
Blended Fair Value$1,260.19
Current Price$423.00
Upside197.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.550.942.390.523.270.0036.19
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-41.45%-60.81%356.02%-84.01%0.00%-100.00%-55.24%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.17%0.11%0.18%0.06%0.38%0.00%4.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,134.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,131.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)626.99391.87235.12
Cash Retained (M)3,131.873,131.873,131.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-626.99-391.87-235.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,504.872,740.002,896.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share131.17143.48151.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share131.17143.48151.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend131.33143.64151.85
WACC / Discount Rate11.22%11.22%11.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$973.74$1,163.96$1,353.70
Upside / Downside130.20%175.17%220.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,134.973,103.623,072.583,041.853,011.442,981.323,070.76
Payout Ratio0.10%18.08%36.06%54.04%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.10561.111,107.951,643.802,168.832,683.192,840.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.22%11.22%11.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)499.42504.51509.61
Year 2 PV (M)877.72895.72913.91
Year 3 PV (M)1,159.051,194.891,231.47
Year 4 PV (M)1,361.111,417.531,475.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,498.781,576.831,658.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,307.6320,313.0321,359.87
Equity Value (M)24,703.7125,902.5127,148.62
Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
Fair Value$1,293.63$1,356.41$1,421.66
Upside / Downside205.82%220.66%236.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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