Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fortis Inc. (FTS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$354.65 - $654.89$613.73
Multi-Stage$103.78 - $113.58$108.59
Blended Fair Value$361.16
Current Price$70.63
Upside411.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.32%14.39%1.491.401.341.211.570.760.920.840.630.46
YoY Growth--6.13%4.16%10.69%-22.65%106.33%-17.00%9.55%32.59%36.21%19.59%
Dividend Yield--2.27%2.63%2.34%1.96%2.88%1.40%1.86%1.92%1.43%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,648.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)776.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)872.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)329.69206.06123.63
Cash Retained (M)872.46872.46872.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-329.69-206.06-123.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)542.77666.40748.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.60500.60500.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.331.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.551.551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.331.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.632.883.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$354.65$613.73$654.89
Upside / Downside402.12%768.93%827.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,648.461,755.611,869.721,991.252,120.692,258.532,326.29
Payout Ratio47.07%55.66%64.24%72.83%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)776.00977.161,201.201,450.221,726.552,032.682,151.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)910.76919.39928.02
Year 2 PV (M)1,043.481,063.361,083.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,174.211,207.911,242.26
Year 4 PV (M)1,302.941,353.051,404.59
Year 5 PV (M)1,429.721,498.771,570.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,092.1248,318.3950,629.86
Equity Value (M)51,953.2354,360.8856,858.63
Shares Outstanding (M)500.60500.60500.60
Fair Value$103.78$108.59$113.58
Upside / Downside46.94%53.75%60.81%

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