Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Fox Corporation (FOXA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.49 - $50.76$42.31
Multi-Stage$60.41 - $66.49$63.39
Blended Fair Value$52.85
Current Price$63.06
Upside-16.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.73%0.00%0.600.610.650.670.720.7314.580.170.080.08
YoY Growth---1.42%-6.02%-2.61%-6.97%-1.49%-94.99%8,585.71%120.00%-2.78%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.96%1.45%2.09%2.18%1.79%2.62%46.22%0.33%0.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,035.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)284.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,751.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)407.00254.38152.63
Cash Retained (M)1,751.001,751.001,751.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-407.00-254.38-152.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,344.001,496.631,598.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)458.75458.75458.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.933.263.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.933.263.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.884.10
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$34.49$42.31$50.76
Upside / Downside-45.30%-32.91%-19.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,035.002,014.651,994.501,974.561,954.811,935.261,993.32
Payout Ratio13.96%29.16%44.37%59.58%74.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)284.00587.57885.031,176.491,462.031,741.741,843.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)538.13543.62549.12
Year 2 PV (M)742.38757.61772.99
Year 3 PV (M)903.84931.79960.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,028.711,071.341,115.29
Year 5 PV (M)1,122.411,180.861,241.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,376.4524,593.7225,861.17
Equity Value (M)27,711.9229,078.9330,500.59
Shares Outstanding (M)458.75458.75458.75
Fair Value$60.41$63.39$66.49
Upside / Downside-4.21%0.52%5.43%

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