Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Equatorial Energia S.A. (EQTL3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$273.75 - $505.51$473.74
Multi-Stage$79.91 - $87.47$83.62
Blended Fair Value$278.68
Current Price$36.95
Upside654.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.04%72.70%1.080.600.830.920.490.370.250.200.200.14
YoY Growth--79.99%-27.01%-10.53%87.28%33.40%45.58%27.11%1.32%39.57%2,971.38%
Dividend Yield--3.39%1.88%3.06%3.39%1.99%2.10%1.59%1.40%1.68%1.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,362.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,451.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,911.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)672.47420.29252.18
Cash Retained (M)1,911.281,911.281,911.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-672.47-420.29-252.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,238.801,490.981,659.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,322.791,322.791,322.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.131.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.131.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.032.222.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$273.75$473.74$505.51
Upside / Downside640.88%1,182.11%1,268.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,362.363,580.913,813.674,061.564,325.564,606.724,744.92
Payout Ratio43.16%52.53%61.89%71.26%80.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,451.081,880.882,360.432,894.373,487.754,146.054,389.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,753.071,769.681,786.30
Year 2 PV (M)2,050.522,089.582,129.00
Year 3 PV (M)2,343.492,410.762,479.31
Year 4 PV (M)2,632.032,733.252,837.36
Year 5 PV (M)2,916.193,057.043,203.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,013.9798,554.88103,269.58
Equity Value (M)105,709.27110,615.20115,704.84
Shares Outstanding (M)1,322.791,322.791,322.79
Fair Value$79.91$83.62$87.47
Upside / Downside116.28%126.31%136.73%

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