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Definitive Analysis

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Emirates NBD Bank PJSC (EMIRATESNBD.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$197.60 - $714.47$626.34
Multi-Stage$90.10 - $98.60$94.27
Blended Fair Value$360.31
Current Price$22.80
Upside1,480.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.81%18.49%1.190.600.500.400.400.350.350.350.350.31
YoY Growth--100.03%20.00%24.99%0.00%13.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%14.29%40.00%
Dividend Yield--5.91%3.42%3.78%2.65%3.46%4.84%3.62%3.40%4.39%4.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,790.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,439.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,351.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,558.002,848.751,709.25
Cash Retained (M)16,351.0016,351.0016,351.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,558.00-2,848.75-1,709.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,793.0013,502.2514,641.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,343.656,343.656,343.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.862.132.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.862.132.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.873.143.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$197.60$626.34$714.47
Upside / Downside766.65%2,647.09%3,033.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,790.0024,271.3525,848.9927,529.1729,318.5731,224.2832,161.00
Payout Ratio28.25%40.60%52.95%65.30%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,439.009,854.8713,687.6017,976.9522,766.0828,101.8529,748.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,120.749,207.199,293.64
Year 2 PV (M)11,724.2611,947.5712,172.99
Year 3 PV (M)14,251.2514,660.3615,077.21
Year 4 PV (M)16,703.3817,345.7518,006.46
Year 5 PV (M)19,082.2720,003.9520,960.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)500,697.90524,881.79549,991.26
Equity Value (M)571,579.80598,046.61625,502.48
Shares Outstanding (M)6,343.656,343.656,343.65
Fair Value$90.10$94.27$98.60
Upside / Downside295.19%313.49%332.47%

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