Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Man Group Limited (EMG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.54 - $5.28$4.36
Multi-Stage$5.12 - $5.59$5.35
Blended Fair Value$4.86
Current Price$2.32
Upside109.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.78%1.65%0.160.150.150.130.120.130.160.130.130.16
YoY Growth--6.08%1.12%11.88%8.84%-3.29%-19.58%19.62%0.00%-18.13%18.40%
Dividend Yield--6.03%5.22%5.84%4.38%6.59%6.13%9.42%4.77%9.11%6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)500.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)389.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)111.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.0062.5037.50
Cash Retained (M)111.00111.00111.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.00-62.50-37.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.0048.5073.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,187.281,187.281,187.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate0.23%1.23%2.23%
Fair Value$3.54$4.36$5.28
Upside / Downside52.46%88.12%127.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)500.00506.16512.39518.70525.09531.56547.50
Payout Ratio77.80%80.24%82.68%85.12%87.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)389.00406.14423.65441.52459.77478.40506.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate0.23%1.23%2.23%
Year 1 PV (M)366.31369.96373.62
Year 2 PV (M)344.62351.53358.51
Year 3 PV (M)323.94333.73343.72
Year 4 PV (M)304.25316.57329.27
Year 5 PV (M)285.53300.06315.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,459.084,686.004,922.06
Equity Value (M)6,083.726,357.856,642.36
Shares Outstanding (M)1,187.281,187.281,187.28
Fair Value$5.12$5.35$5.59
Upside / Downside120.87%130.82%141.15%

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