Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company Limited (DELTA-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.62 - $62.83$42.05
Multi-Stage$21.96 - $23.96$22.94
Blended Fair Value$32.50
Current Price$158.50
Upside-79.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.37%5.24%0.450.400.170.330.180.230.220.300.310.30
YoY Growth--12.50%135.29%-48.48%83.33%-21.74%4.55%-26.67%-3.23%3.33%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.54%0.15%0.85%0.62%6.76%3.14%4.41%3.54%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,713.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,737.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,975.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,942.742,464.211,478.53
Cash Retained (M)13,975.7513,975.7513,975.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,942.74-2,464.21-1,478.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,033.0111,511.5412,497.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,482.9512,482.9512,482.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.381.46
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.62$42.05$62.83
Upside / Downside-81.31%-73.47%-60.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,713.7120,995.1022,359.7823,813.1725,361.0227,009.4927,819.77
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.46%65.64%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,737.968,667.8611,954.4015,631.5719,736.2724,308.5425,733.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,805.927,879.917,953.90
Year 2 PV (M)9,695.119,879.7810,066.19
Year 3 PV (M)11,416.6911,744.4312,078.37
Year 4 PV (M)12,981.2213,480.4413,993.92
Year 5 PV (M)14,398.6515,094.1115,816.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)217,769.71228,288.07239,208.99
Equity Value (M)274,067.30286,366.73299,117.55
Shares Outstanding (M)12,482.9512,482.9512,482.95
Fair Value$21.96$22.94$23.96
Upside / Downside-86.15%-85.53%-84.88%

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