Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Financeira Alfa S.A. - Crédito, Financiamento e Investimentos (CRIV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.48 - $38.49$36.07
Multi-Stage$6.41 - $7.00$6.70
Blended Fair Value$21.39
Current Price$5.66
Upside277.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS2.46%-5.01%0.190.210.200.230.150.170.140.160.140.13
YoY Growth---10.40%9.07%-15.38%56.51%-12.75%18.34%-8.22%9.10%7.65%-58.48%
Dividend Yield--3.37%4.07%3.73%3.61%2.30%2.81%2.84%3.93%4.40%4.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.972.481.49
Cash Retained (M)0.310.310.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.97-2.48-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.67-2.18-1.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.65102.65102.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.48$36.07$38.49
Upside / Downside297.22%537.35%580.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.8721.1622.5424.0025.5627.2228.04
Payout Ratio98.46%96.77%95.08%93.39%91.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.5620.4821.4322.4123.4424.5025.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.1019.2819.46
Year 2 PV (M)18.6318.9919.35
Year 3 PV (M)18.1818.7019.23
Year 4 PV (M)17.7318.4119.11
Year 5 PV (M)17.2818.1118.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)566.90594.28622.71
Equity Value (M)657.81687.76718.83
Shares Outstanding (M)102.65102.65102.65
Fair Value$6.41$6.70$7.00
Upside / Downside13.22%18.37%23.72%

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