Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.14 - $11.80$9.91
Multi-Stage$13.41 - $14.75$14.07
Blended Fair Value$11.99
Current Price$30.18
Upside-60.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.301.151.080.970.900.83
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-73.44%6.55%10.67%7.64%8.31%0.21%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.49%11.25%2.69%2.58%2.04%2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.9619.3511.61
Cash Retained (M)126.50126.50126.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.96-19.35-11.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.54107.15114.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.98138.98138.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.14$9.91$11.80
Upside / Downside-73.04%-67.16%-60.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154.80153.25151.72150.20148.70147.21151.63
Payout Ratio18.28%32.63%46.97%61.31%75.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.3050.0071.2692.09112.50132.49140.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.5245.9846.45
Year 2 PV (M)59.0660.2761.50
Year 3 PV (M)69.4971.6473.83
Year 4 PV (M)77.2880.4883.78
Year 5 PV (M)82.8587.1791.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,529.601,609.251,692.18
Equity Value (M)1,863.801,954.792,049.40
Shares Outstanding (M)138.98138.98138.98
Fair Value$13.41$14.07$14.75
Upside / Downside-55.56%-53.39%-51.14%

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