Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Gás de São Paulo - COMGÁS (CGAS3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,319.48 - $2,565.22$2,403.98
Multi-Stage$397.87 - $435.61$416.39
Blended Fair Value$1,410.19
Current Price$128.00
Upside1,001.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.36%49.74%21.823.4314.9413.169.0616.046.048.9510.923.68
YoY Growth--535.95%-77.03%13.52%45.26%-43.50%165.62%-32.52%-18.11%196.46%857.31%
Dividend Yield--15.93%2.39%11.67%10.23%5.88%9.06%7.38%15.34%23.43%9.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,616.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)544.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,072.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)323.39202.12121.27
Cash Retained (M)1,072.791,072.791,072.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-323.39-202.12-121.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)749.41870.68951.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)125.36125.36125.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.986.957.59
LTM Dividend per Share4.344.344.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.986.957.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3211.2911.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,319.48$2,403.98$2,565.22
Upside / Downside930.84%1,778.11%1,904.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,616.931,722.031,833.961,953.172,080.122,215.332,281.79
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)544.14773.571,030.531,317.631,637.691,993.802,110.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)720.72727.55734.38
Year 2 PV (M)894.53911.57928.77
Year 3 PV (M)1,065.601,096.191,127.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,233.961,281.411,330.23
Year 5 PV (M)1,399.641,467.251,537.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,560.9746,713.2848,947.97
Equity Value (M)49,875.4352,197.2654,606.14
Shares Outstanding (M)125.36125.36125.36
Fair Value$397.87$416.39$435.61
Upside / Downside210.83%225.31%240.32%

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