Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBAV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.04 - $71.52$67.02
Multi-Stage$10.93 - $11.96$11.43
Blended Fair Value$39.23
Current Price$3.56
Upside1,001.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.65%-10.27%0.200.130.500.020.000.080.020.000.000.25
YoY Growth--56.70%-74.44%2,745.14%0.00%-100.00%337.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-57.76%
Dividend Yield--4.15%3.13%6.57%0.09%0.00%0.71%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)234.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.8329.2717.56
Cash Retained (M)104.07104.07104.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.83-29.27-17.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.2574.8186.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)651.07651.07651.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.04$67.02$71.52
Upside / Downside828.17%1,782.62%1,908.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)234.13249.35265.55282.82301.20320.78330.40
Payout Ratio55.55%62.44%69.33%76.22%83.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.06155.69184.11215.56250.33288.70305.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)144.93146.30147.67
Year 2 PV (M)159.53162.57165.64
Year 3 PV (M)173.87178.86183.95
Year 4 PV (M)187.95195.18202.62
Year 5 PV (M)201.78211.52221.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,248.446,550.246,863.60
Equity Value (M)7,116.507,444.687,785.11
Shares Outstanding (M)651.07651.07651.07
Fair Value$10.93$11.43$11.96
Upside / Downside207.03%221.19%235.88%

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