Definitive Analysis
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Cairn Homes plc (C5H.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.73 - $64.66$40.70
Multi-Stage$7.83 - $8.56$8.19
Blended Fair Value$24.44
Current Price$2.14
Upside1,042.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.83%0.00%0.070.060.060.030.000.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.74%2.95%104.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.96%4.90%7.24%2.73%0.00%2.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)210.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.1126.3215.79
Cash Retained (M)117.59117.59117.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.11-26.32-15.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.4891.27101.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)647.61647.61647.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.73$40.70$64.66
Upside / Downside635.09%1,801.77%2,921.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)210.57224.26238.83254.36270.89288.50297.15
Payout Ratio44.15%53.32%62.49%71.66%80.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.98119.58149.25182.28218.96259.65274.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)110.46111.50112.55
Year 2 PV (M)127.35129.77132.22
Year 3 PV (M)143.65147.78151.98
Year 4 PV (M)159.40165.53171.83
Year 5 PV (M)174.59183.03191.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,354.474,564.794,783.16
Equity Value (M)5,069.925,302.405,543.53
Shares Outstanding (M)647.61647.61647.61
Fair Value$7.83$8.19$8.56
Upside / Downside265.83%282.60%300.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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