Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bellway p.l.c. (BWY.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.22 - $23.13$19.61
Multi-Stage$27.94 - $30.60$29.24
Blended Fair Value$24.43
Current Price$24.90
Upside-1.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.68%-0.64%0.591.101.441.310.881.031.501.361.140.88
YoY Growth---46.85%-23.30%9.22%50.14%-14.95%-31.18%9.97%19.11%29.55%41.28%
Dividend Yield--2.35%3.84%6.48%5.34%2.67%4.04%5.04%4.66%3.58%4.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.6036.0021.60
Cash Retained (M)86.3086.3086.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.60-36.00-21.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.7050.3064.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.58119.58119.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.420.54
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.420.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Fair Value$16.22$19.61$23.13
Upside / Downside-34.86%-21.23%-7.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.00284.17280.39276.65272.97269.34277.42
Payout Ratio70.03%74.03%78.02%82.01%86.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.70210.36218.76226.89234.78242.41256.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Year 1 PV (M)190.56192.52194.47
Year 2 PV (M)179.52183.22186.95
Year 3 PV (M)168.67173.91179.25
Year 4 PV (M)158.11164.68171.46
Year 5 PV (M)147.88155.61163.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,496.632,627.092,762.94
Equity Value (M)3,341.383,497.013,658.72
Shares Outstanding (M)119.58119.58119.58
Fair Value$27.94$29.24$30.60
Upside / Downside12.22%17.45%22.88%

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