Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bunzl plc (BNZL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.84 - $519.53$289.97
Multi-Stage$73.98 - $80.99$77.42
Blended Fair Value$183.69
Current Price$23.20
Upside691.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.44%8.03%0.680.630.570.540.510.500.460.410.370.35
YoY Growth--9.01%10.08%5.60%5.19%2.51%9.92%10.13%10.21%8.01%9.94%
Dividend Yield--2.07%1.97%2.06%1.87%2.10%2.42%1.92%2.02%1.78%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)880.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)413.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)466.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)176.07110.0466.03
Cash Retained (M)466.60466.60466.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-176.07-110.04-66.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)290.53356.56400.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)334.49334.49334.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.071.20
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.071.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.302.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.70%5.70%6.70%
Fair Value$119.84$289.97$519.53
Upside / Downside416.57%1,149.85%2,139.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)880.35930.54983.591,039.661,098.931,161.581,196.42
Payout Ratio47.00%55.60%64.20%72.80%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)413.75517.37631.45756.86894.521,045.421,106.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.70%5.70%6.70%
Year 1 PV (M)481.01485.61490.20
Year 2 PV (M)545.83556.30566.88
Year 3 PV (M)608.26625.86643.79
Year 4 PV (M)668.38694.28720.93
Year 5 PV (M)726.24761.59798.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,715.6422,772.6723,870.47
Equity Value (M)24,745.3625,896.3127,090.57
Shares Outstanding (M)334.49334.49334.49
Fair Value$73.98$77.42$80.99
Upside / Downside218.87%233.71%249.09%

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