Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Banco do Nordeste do Brasil S.A. (BNBR3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,576.36 - $5,688.46$5,015.51
Multi-Stage$713.86 - $781.43$747.02
Blended Fair Value$2,881.27
Current Price$102.00
Upside2,724.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.32%12.61%5.220.003.864.170.673.191.491.900.724.80
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-7.49%519.47%-78.93%114.45%-21.54%162.50%-84.92%201.35%
Dividend Yield--5.25%0.00%5.59%7.16%1.27%5.34%5.35%7.38%3.89%30.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,822.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)589.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,233.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)564.52352.83211.70
Cash Retained (M)2,233.102,233.102,233.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-564.52-352.83-211.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,668.581,880.272,021.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)98.6898.6898.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.9119.0520.48
LTM Dividend per Share5.975.975.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.9119.0520.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.8825.0326.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,576.36$5,015.51$5,688.46
Upside / Downside1,445.45%4,817.17%5,476.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,822.613,006.083,201.473,409.573,631.193,867.223,983.24
Payout Ratio20.89%34.71%48.53%62.35%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)589.511,043.361,553.712,126.012,766.143,480.503,684.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)965.66974.81983.97
Year 2 PV (M)1,330.931,356.281,381.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,685.541,733.931,783.23
Year 4 PV (M)2,029.732,107.792,188.08
Year 5 PV (M)2,363.732,477.902,596.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,069.0065,066.9568,179.65
Equity Value (M)70,444.5973,717.6677,113.23
Shares Outstanding (M)98.6898.6898.68
Fair Value$713.86$747.02$781.43
Upside / Downside599.86%632.38%666.11%

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