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Definitive Analysis

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Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (BEM-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.79 - $4.52$3.57
Multi-Stage$5.85 - $6.43$6.13
Blended Fair Value$4.85
Current Price$5.15
Upside-5.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.40%5.02%0.140.120.080.100.090.160.130.120.120.13
YoY Growth--16.51%50.00%-20.00%11.11%-40.00%15.38%8.33%0.00%-4.72%47.06%
Dividend Yield--2.68%1.51%0.94%1.19%1.06%2.00%1.33%1.74%1.63%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,794.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,246.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,547.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)758.85474.28284.57
Cash Retained (M)1,547.561,547.561,547.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-758.85-474.28-284.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)788.711,073.281,262.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14,775.4214,775.4214,775.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-0.91%0.09%1.09%
Fair Value$2.79$3.57$4.52
Upside / Downside-45.92%-30.78%-12.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,794.243,797.633,801.023,804.413,807.813,811.213,925.54
Payout Ratio59.21%65.37%71.53%77.69%83.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,246.682,482.522,718.782,955.463,192.563,430.093,631.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-0.91%0.09%1.09%
Year 1 PV (M)2,309.942,333.252,356.56
Year 2 PV (M)2,353.912,401.662,449.89
Year 3 PV (M)2,380.932,453.752,528.03
Year 4 PV (M)2,393.142,491.222,592.28
Year 5 PV (M)2,392.442,515.622,643.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,542.7178,380.7982,375.36
Equity Value (M)86,373.0790,576.2994,945.96
Shares Outstanding (M)14,775.4214,775.4214,775.42
Fair Value$5.85$6.13$6.43
Upside / Downside13.51%19.03%24.78%

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