Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Black Diamond Group Limited (BDI.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.71 - $11.23$8.70
Multi-Stage$19.45 - $21.45$20.43
Blended Fair Value$14.57
Current Price$14.00
Upside4.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-15.48%0.120.080.050.010.000.000.000.150.240.58
YoY Growth--51.93%41.37%369.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-39.30%-58.92%-5.77%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.86%0.90%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%6.39%6.20%13.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.314.572.74
Cash Retained (M)28.3028.3028.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.31-4.57-2.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.9823.7325.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63.3063.3063.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.53
WACC / Discount Rate5.19%5.19%5.19%
Growth Rate-1.58%-0.58%0.42%
Fair Value$6.71$8.70$11.23
Upside / Downside-52.06%-37.86%-19.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.5636.3436.1335.9235.7135.5036.57
Payout Ratio22.60%36.08%49.56%63.04%76.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.2613.1117.9122.6427.3331.9533.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.19%5.19%5.19%
Growth Rate-1.58%-0.58%0.42%
Year 1 PV (M)12.3412.4712.59
Year 2 PV (M)15.8616.1816.51
Year 3 PV (M)18.8719.4520.05
Year 4 PV (M)21.4322.3223.23
Year 5 PV (M)23.5924.8126.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,139.071,198.131,259.61
Equity Value (M)1,231.171,293.361,358.08
Shares Outstanding (M)63.3063.3063.30
Fair Value$19.45$20.43$21.45
Upside / Downside38.92%45.94%53.24%

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