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Definitive Analysis

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Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Staffing & Employment ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.86 - $48.77$36.77
Multi-Stage$34.38 - $37.72$36.02
Blended Fair Value$36.40
Current Price$44.32
Upside-17.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.30%4.04%0.310.310.320.350.350.310.280.280.240.24
YoY Growth---0.04%-5.10%-6.01%-0.57%11.12%11.70%0.99%14.42%0.78%15.93%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.97%1.47%1.79%2.02%3.16%1.43%1.34%1.77%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.976.864.11
Cash Retained (M)46.6246.6246.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.97-6.86-4.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.6439.7642.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.2326.2326.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.361.521.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.361.521.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate1.96%2.96%3.96%
Fair Value$27.86$36.77$48.77
Upside / Downside-37.15%-17.03%10.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.8556.4858.1559.8861.6563.4865.38
Payout Ratio15.02%30.01%45.01%60.01%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.2416.9526.1735.9346.2457.1360.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate1.96%2.96%3.96%
Year 1 PV (M)15.5315.6815.83
Year 2 PV (M)21.9722.4022.84
Year 3 PV (M)27.6328.4529.29
Year 4 PV (M)32.5833.8835.21
Year 5 PV (M)36.8838.7240.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)767.19805.56845.45
Equity Value (M)901.79944.70989.26
Shares Outstanding (M)26.2326.2326.23
Fair Value$34.38$36.02$37.72
Upside / Downside-22.42%-18.73%-14.90%

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