Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Excelsior Alimentos S.A. (BAUH4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$171.09 - $834.24$304.29
Multi-Stage$106.06 - $116.02$110.95
Blended Fair Value$207.62
Current Price$86.96
Upside138.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.53%19.23%0.781.150.390.940.620.350.600.110.080.33
YoY Growth---32.28%191.29%-58.33%52.93%78.37%-42.14%468.18%38.89%-76.91%145.70%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.44%0.49%1.25%0.67%0.43%2.41%0.69%0.86%5.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.593.502.10
Cash Retained (M)21.8421.8421.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.59-3.50-2.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.2518.3519.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.225.225.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.113.513.78
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.113.513.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.284.684.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Fair Value$171.09$304.29$834.24
Upside / Downside96.74%249.92%859.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.9629.7331.6233.6235.7538.0239.16
Payout Ratio21.88%35.50%49.13%62.75%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.1210.5615.5321.1027.3034.2136.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Year 1 PV (M)9.689.789.87
Year 2 PV (M)13.0713.3213.57
Year 3 PV (M)16.2916.7617.24
Year 4 PV (M)19.3420.0920.85
Year 5 PV (M)22.2423.3124.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)473.24496.13519.91
Equity Value (M)553.87579.39605.87
Shares Outstanding (M)5.225.225.22
Fair Value$106.06$110.95$116.02
Upside / Downside21.97%27.59%33.42%

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