Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Bafar, S.A.B. de C.V. (BAFARB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,209.91 - $1,425.48$1,335.88
Multi-Stage$282.65 - $309.78$295.97
Blended Fair Value$815.92
Current Price$108.50
Upside652.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2021202020192018201720162015201420132012
DPS0.00%0.00%0.480.430.360.230.000.000.000.520.000.00
YoY Growth--12.36%20.26%58.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%1.16%0.89%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.68%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,225.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)456.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,769.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)445.12278.20166.92
Cash Retained (M)1,769.581,769.581,769.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-445.12-278.20-166.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,324.461,491.381,602.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)310.51310.51310.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.274.805.16
LTM Dividend per Share1.471.471.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.274.805.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.736.276.63
WACC / Discount Rate5.61%5.61%5.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,209.91$1,335.88$1,425.48
Upside / Downside1,015.12%1,131.23%1,213.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,225.622,370.282,524.352,688.442,863.183,049.293,140.77
Payout Ratio20.49%34.39%48.29%62.20%76.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)456.04815.191,219.121,672.102,178.832,744.362,905.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.61%5.61%5.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)764.65771.90779.15
Year 2 PV (M)1,072.631,093.061,113.69
Year 3 PV (M)1,379.981,419.591,459.96
Year 4 PV (M)1,686.691,751.561,818.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,992.772,089.032,188.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,868.0884,774.0488,829.48
Equity Value (M)87,764.8191,899.1896,189.52
Shares Outstanding (M)310.51310.51310.51
Fair Value$282.65$295.97$309.78
Upside / Downside160.51%172.78%185.51%

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