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Definitive Analysis

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AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$168.11 - $298.05$223.04
Multi-Stage$252.61 - $277.60$264.87
Blended Fair Value$243.95
Current Price$95.80
Upside154.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.04%2.58%1.861.891.831.791.741.681.641.661.621.45
YoY Growth---1.31%2.97%2.57%2.83%3.19%2.78%-1.13%2.05%11.52%0.88%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.90%3.36%2.95%3.50%4.35%2.96%2.88%2.42%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,012.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)867.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.59126.6275.97
Cash Retained (M)867.03867.03867.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.59-126.62-75.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)664.44740.41791.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.5581.5581.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.159.089.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.159.089.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.9410.8711.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate1.03%2.03%3.03%
Fair Value$168.11$223.04$298.05
Upside / Downside75.48%132.82%211.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,012.931,033.441,054.371,075.731,097.521,119.751,153.34
Payout Ratio14.40%29.52%44.64%59.76%74.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.90305.10470.69642.87821.831,007.771,066.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate1.03%2.03%3.03%
Year 1 PV (M)282.36285.15287.94
Year 2 PV (M)403.13411.15419.25
Year 3 PV (M)509.54524.82540.41
Year 4 PV (M)602.82627.04651.99
Year 5 PV (M)684.10718.64754.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,119.3919,034.0919,985.37
Equity Value (M)20,601.3421,600.8922,639.51
Shares Outstanding (M)81.5581.5581.55
Fair Value$252.61$264.87$277.60
Upside / Downside163.69%176.48%189.78%

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