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Definitive Analysis

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Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$413.63 - $1,490.03$1,320.41
Multi-Stage$190.80 - $208.66$199.57
Blended Fair Value$759.99
Current Price$170.75
Upside345.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.41%13.22%3.463.082.692.352.021.771.541.341.201.09
YoY Growth--12.34%14.55%14.48%16.06%14.68%14.95%14.34%11.97%9.60%9.44%
Dividend Yield--2.03%2.21%2.32%2.10%1.93%1.85%1.37%1.45%1.40%1.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,198.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)553.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)644.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)239.75149.8489.91
Cash Retained (M)644.99644.99644.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-239.75-149.84-89.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)405.24495.15555.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.533.093.47
LTM Dividend per Share3.463.463.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.533.093.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.996.566.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$413.63$1,320.41$1,490.03
Upside / Downside142.24%673.30%772.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,198.751,276.671,359.661,448.031,542.161,642.401,691.67
Payout Ratio46.19%54.96%63.72%72.48%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)553.76701.61866.331,049.501,252.831,478.161,564.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)649.37655.53661.69
Year 2 PV (M)742.14756.28770.55
Year 3 PV (M)832.13856.02880.36
Year 4 PV (M)919.39954.75991.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,004.001,052.491,102.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,381.3327,655.5528,978.55
Equity Value (M)30,528.3731,930.6233,385.10
Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
Fair Value$190.80$199.57$208.66
Upside / Downside11.74%16.88%22.20%

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