Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Armac Locação, Logística e Serviços S.A. (ARML3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.36 - $31.69$24.43
Multi-Stage$4.00 - $4.38$4.19
Blended Fair Value$14.31
Current Price$3.71
Upside285.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS117.64%0.00%0.310.290.290.140.060.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.80%0.52%102.26%129.95%878.01%167.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.33%2.43%2.54%0.76%0.31%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.846.774.06
Cash Retained (M)24.1824.1824.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.84-6.77-4.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.3417.4020.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)340.07340.07340.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.36$24.43$31.69
Upside / Downside125.46%558.55%754.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.1957.7161.4665.4569.7174.2476.47
Payout Ratio55.38%62.31%69.23%76.15%83.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.0135.9642.5549.8457.9166.8270.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.2533.5733.88
Year 2 PV (M)36.3937.0937.79
Year 3 PV (M)39.4340.5741.72
Year 4 PV (M)42.3744.0045.68
Year 5 PV (M)45.2247.4049.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,165.261,221.541,279.98
Equity Value (M)1,361.931,424.171,488.72
Shares Outstanding (M)340.07340.07340.07
Fair Value$4.00$4.19$4.38
Upside / Downside7.95%12.88%18.00%

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